This post is just a rant brought about by a personal experience from this weekend, so I apologize in advance. I had a good evening turn sour due to the mouthing-off of a couple of mathematically-challenged gamblers; I just need to get this off my chest.

If you honestly believe that the cards any person at a blackjack table takes or doesn't take has any effect whatsoever on the outcome of the dealer's hand, you probably shouldn't be gambling. Or at least not playing blackjack. Try slots or roulette, where the odds are as simple as your understanding of basic probability.

Convinced that if "third base" (the last player before the dealer) draws a face card that might bust the dealer he's "ruining" it for the table? Here's a thought experiment that might open your eyes: imagine if the dealer dealt the hand normally with one exception: she deals herself two down cards instead of only one. The second down card would become her first "draw" card, if she needed one. Does putting that first dealer draw card out there first magically prevent third base from so drastically affecting the game? Or could it be that the ordering of cards and the odds of a dealer bust are completely random and not affected by player decisions?

Another experiment: imagine if you were allowed to put a cut card into the deck (or 4 or 6 decks, as most casinos use) for every draw, with the card immediately behind the cut card being your draw card. (If the neat ordering of the cards in the shoe is too hard to ignore, imagine all the cards are in a big black bag and you just reach in and choose one.) Complete random selection out of the deck for each player and the dealer. Does this change the odds of the game in any way? Clearly not. But suddenly third base can't "steal" the card that would bust the dealer. It should be obvious that he never could.

Incidentally, the idiots mouthing off to me (for drawing to a hard 12 against a dealer 2, which is good basic strategy) this weekend failed to notice the time when I drew to a 13 (again, against a 2), pulled an 8 (yay), and the dealer subsequently pulled a King. "Saved" the entire table <rolleyes>, but nobody patted me on the back.